Shenzhen’s latest Five Year Plan envisages annual GDP growth of 6% from 2020-25. The plan, which was only formally released yesterday, sets a target of the city’s economy reaching 4 trillion yuan by 2025 – which is roughly 3.5 years from now. By that date, per-capita GDP is expected to have grown by a similar rate – 6% per year – which suggests the city government does not anticipate enlarging its official population (i.e., those with a Shenzhen hukou). The supply of public housing units, however, will be enlarged by 280,000 units.
(GBI comment: Shenzhen has been the country’s fastest-growing major city – in terms of population – together with Guangzhou for many years. It blew past its population growth predictions in the last Five-Year-Plan, as noted by the SCMP, but now apparently is doing away with incentives designed to attract talent to the city.)
Latest data from the provincial government show that Guangdong’s economic recovery continued to set a strong pace the first four months of the year, with GDP rising 18.6% YoY, driven by surging industrial output and foreign trade.
Growth in industry came in at 25.1%, with the construction sector sizzling at 29.5%, while total foreign trade was up 30.3%. Exports shot up by 36.2%.
Investment came in at 28% growth, and although the services sector lagged behind overall at 15.6% growth, there was a surge in accommodation and catering, which was up 43%. Retail sales clocked 27.8% growth.
the provincial government leaked Shenzhen’s GDP headline number for the first
three quarters yesterday, causing a rush of commentary by bloggers and
real-estate analysts, the city government decided today to clarify the reasons
why its economy slowed so sharply, to 6.6% from 7.4% in the first six months.
the report was full of numbers that the
Shenzhen Daily tried to portray in a positive light.
the heart of the data was an unmistakeable weakness: a sharp slowdown in
industrial output and input, as we had expected in our report published
Huizhou’s economy is continuing to slow amid a tough external environment, but rising investment levels are cushioning the economy, according to official data.
Industrial output continued to fall from January to August , with growth among enterprises above
designated size rising only 0.7% YoY, down 1.5 percentage points from the Jan-Jul
period. Electronics and petrochemicals, the two big guns, were down -1.6% and -4.5%, respectively, which was slower than the Jan-Jul
period by 1.1 and 2.5 percentage points, respectively.
However, fixed-asset investment growth accelerated. From January to August , it shot up 15.1% , 2.7 percentage points faster
than the Jan-Jul period, and 12.1 percentage points faster YoY. Industrial
investment grew 15.8%; infrastructure investment jumped 24.5%; and real estate investment jumped 20.4%.
Total retail sales rose 7.6% , but this was down 1 percentage point from the first half of
the year. Vehicle sales were a major drag, falling -3.2% , down 4.3 percentage points from the first half of
the year. Home appliances were up 7.9% , but this was a steep drop of 13 percentage points from the first half.
The provincial capital is continuing to restructure its economy amid a slowdown in foreign trade, which is having a knock-on effect on the manufacturing sector. Services are growing robustly, investment is surging, and retail sales are holding steady, latest official economic data shows.
Shenzhen continues to weather the slowdown in foreign trade remarkably well, judging by data for July. Fixed-asset investment rose 16.2% YoY, powered by infrastructure investment (+46.9%). And, thanks to growth in the key industries of tech and pharmaceuticals, industrial output has held up (+6.1%), too. Only trade is showing weakness, and it’s far better than had been anticipated: exports were still up over the first seven months (+4.6%), while imports continued to struggle (-8.9%).
Investors in China are wringing their hands after economic data for July showed declining indicators across the board. However, until we get detailed data for Guangdong, it is hard to know what that national data means for investors in the Greater Bay Area. What we do know is that in the first six months of the year, the nine GBA cities inside Guangdong mostly outperformed the national average, with particular strength seen in the province’s two Tier-1 cities of Guangzhou and Shenzhen. Not only did they grow at rates nearly a full percentage point higher than the national average (7.1% vs. 6.2%), but their growth was accelerating over January to June.
Last week we explained how two of Guangzhou’s districts, Tianhe and Nansha, were propelling the city’s industrial upgrading in finance and tech. Today, we take a closer look at Shenzhen’s leading districts. Here, we see four, also being driven by growth in finance and tech, plus the buildout of the aerotropolis. They are: Nanshan (home to Tencent and others), Longgang (home to Huawei), Futian (home to Ping An) and Baoan (home to the airport).
Zhuhai’s economy grew 7.0% in the first half. Looking closer at the details, it would appear that a construction boom has helped, and it would not take a genius to guess that this means Hengqin Island’s massive buildout is getting up to speed.
According to the Zhuhai Statistic Bureau, the city’s construction industry was worth RMB38.807 billion, up 32.4% year on year. That is out of a total GDP of RMB148 billion.