Paul Triolo of the Eurasia Group is not letting up. After pointing out last week that Huawei cannot make its own chips because it needs chipmaking equipment from US suppliers, today he is quoted by SCMP as saying that Huawei’s collapse is a foregone conclusion and, when it happens, the rollout of 5G in Asia will be severely disrupted for many years.
Triolo may be right. He’s an expert on the industry. He also belongs to a research group based in Washington with close ties to the US government. We simply don’t know, but we may have to assume that he is correct. If so, there is one question nagging us about this scenario: Does the fact that China is so far ahead in its rollout of 5G mean that it will likely focus all efforts on ensuring its own rollout is finished before anywhere else that was supposed to be supplied by Huawei? Just how much Huawei equipment had been stockpiled ahead of the Trump ban? Enough to fill all its current 5G orders from customers around the world? Or just enough to finish off China’s networks?
Read more on SCMP.