Guangdong’s economy showed resilience in Q3, outperforming the national average, as it has done all year. GDP of RMB 771.192 billion for the year to end-September was up 6.4% YoY, only 0.1 percentage points slower than the first six months of the year. The Q3 number of 6.3% was well above the national 6.0%.
Driving this growth was the services industry. Manufacturing (+4.6%) and agriculture/mining (+3.8%) were stable, but tertiary output (services) was up a strong 7.9%.
Even better was the outperformance in manufacturing of the private sector, which grew by 7.1%. This was primarily driven by consumer electronics, up 7.5%, and the electrical machinery and equipment manufacturing industry, up 8.2%. Smaller but more promising industries stood out for surging growth: new energy vehicles jumped 76.0%; EMUs (trains) were up 66.7%; and 3D printing equipment soared by 270.8%
Fixed-asset investment continued to grow strongly, up 11.3% in the first three quarters, with infrastructure investment leading at +23.7%. The Guangzhou-Shenzhen-Dongguan Intercity Railway, which opens on November 1, was a key part of this growth.
Retail sales were up 7.8%, the highest growth rate since the beginning of this year. Sales of consumer upgraded goods grew rapidly.
Trade continued to soften. Exports stayed in positive territory, but slower, at +2.1% YoY growth. Imports fell, but the -4.7% number was slightly better than the previous -5.1%.
Unemployment was 2.16%, down 0.26 percentage points YoY, while per capita disposable income rose 8.7% to RMB 30,755.